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RIGHT NOW: Light to moderate rain continues to fall over much of Central Alabama this afternoon, although the coverage has decreased a bit within the past hour. The air is cool and stable, with temperatures generally in the upper 50s with low clouds and fog continuing.
The big rain mass will help mitigate the severe weather threat tonight to some degree, but with a rather dynamic upper low getting close, and high low level shear values, we will still have to watch the radar closely. And, within the last 30 minutes we have started to see some breaks in the overcast over the northern half of Alabama, giving the sun a little time to work on the heating process before it goes down.
SPC maintains a “slight risk” of severe weather for much of Alabama tonight, but it sure looks like the greatest risk will be over the southern two-thirds of the state where there will be some surface based instability (I-20 south). We do note some of the models still bring some instability up into North Alabama after midnight. In fact, the HRRR shows a decent amount of CAPE around I-65 as far north as Birmingham in the 2-3 a.m. time frame.
The best chance of severe weather will come from about 9:00 p.m. until 5:00 a.m. And, we project rain amounts of 3/4 inch on average. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all the graphics and details. This is certainly not a major severe weather threat, but a late night tornado warning is certainly possible in spots.
TOMORROW-FRIDAY: As the cold core upper low passes over us tomorrow morning, we might see some lingering showers. You might even hear of a report of small hail from those showers due to the very cold air aloft. The bulk of the rain should be over by mid-day, but clouds will linger much of the day with a high in the upper 50s. The cool-down continues for the rest of the week; the GFS is printing a high of only 49 Thursday with a brisk northwest wind. There might be a tad of light rain or drizzle Thursday over the northern third of the state, but nothing really heavy or significant.
Friday will be cold and dry with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the 40-45 degree range. Friday morning promises to be very cold with a low well down in the 20s.
OUR WEEKEND: Saturday morning might be the coldest with a clear sky and light wind… expect lows between 18 and 25. Then, the rest of the weekend will be dry with a slow warming trend. Afternoon highs ease up toward the low 50s.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues to suggest our next chance of rain comes on Tuesday… nothing severe or especially heavy.
LONG RANGE: Again today operational models show no sign of any snow or ice issues for Alabama during the next 15 days. Occasional cold shots are likely, but they won’t last long with the positive NAO. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 p.m. CST… tonight’s guest is Jeff Garmon, who is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist for the NWS office in Mobile. You can listen live via uStream here.
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I had a great today today visiting with the 2nd graders at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow, and stay tuned for late night updates on the Alabama thunderstorm situation.
