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WATCHING THE RADAR: Ah, the mystery of summer convection in Alabama. The morning showers and storms over the northern counties produced a boundary that has served to focus afternoon storms south of here, roughly along the U.S. 80 corridor. The Birmingham NWS earlier issued severe thunderstorm warnings for parts of Lowndes and Dallas Counties for the storms south of Selma.
Over North Alabama, the air is more stable due to the morning showers with temperatures generally in the 80s. Still, there is a front to the north that still has potential to bring new showers and storms over the next 5-7 hours, and we will maintain that risk in the forecast.
TOMORROW: Drier air will slip into North Alabama, and it sure looks like most places north and east of Birmingham will be dry with lower humidity levels. A shower is possible tomorrow afternoon over West and South Alabama in a few spots where higher moisture levels will linger.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Looks like a thunderstorm complex could impact North Alabama late in the day or Thursday night. We all know trying to time out these MCS events is almost impossible, but we will need to insert that risk of a shower or storm in response to this possibility. Then, Friday looks mostly dry in the wake of that thunderstorm mass with only a small risk of a shower or storm during the day. Highs will be mostly in the low 90s.
THE WEEKEND: There will be a risk of scattered showers and storms both Saturday and Sunday, and there remains evidence the greatest coverage of the showers could come on Sunday with a surface front approaching from the north. Highs will be stay generally in the low 90s.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues to show a rather high amplitude pattern for August, with a nice upper trough over the eastern third of the nation, which pushes dry air down into all of Alabama. This means no rain Monday and Tuesday, lower humidity, and cooler nights. We might even hear of low 60s over Northeast Alabama by Tuesday morning.
TROPICS: All remains quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected through the rest of the week.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Routine summer weather continues along the coast through the weekend… about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day with scattered showers and storms. Highs will remain close to 90, and the sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this afternoon is a warm 88 degrees.
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