Published on: July 2, 2011 at 7:20 AM

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Looks like the heat and chances for daily storms will continue well into and through the upcoming week. However, there appears to be a reasonably good chance that we will see a slight pattern change that will improve daily shower chances as we get into the middle and latter part of the upcoming week.

For today, the afternoon heat will persist with highs well into the mid and upper 90s. A weak boundary across southern Alabama this morning is expected to drift slowly northward. This boundary is likely to be the focus for shower development this afternoon. Showers are still expected to be isolated with most people not getting much rain.

The ridge begins a slow breakdown Sunday and Monday as it gradually shifts west. This opens the way for troughiness to develop on the eastern seaboard and improving our chances for rain beginning Tuesday and extending into the latter part of the week. So we should go from isolated shower possibilities to scattered shower possibilities – not a big change, however, enough to improve coverage of daily showers giving more people a shot at some rain. Because of the heat, any showers that do develop have some potential to becoming marginally severe with damaging wind the most likely problem.

Rainfall will remain spotty for the foreseeable future, but those that do catch a shower could see one half to one inch in the core of the heaviest storms.

Tropics are quiet and the SPC continues to focus attention for severe weather well north and northwest of us.

By the end of the week and next weekend the general weakness or trough on the East Coast will keep rain chances fairly good across the eastern half of the Southeast US. And the GFS shows a great pattern for the middle of July with a very deep trough over the eastern half of the country with the big ridge over the Rockies. If this pattern comes true, we will see a period of reduced heat and some good rain chances. The northerly flow also opens the door for large thunderstorm complexes to form north and northwest of us and bring large rain areas into the Southeast. But this is too far into the future to do more than generalize on the pattern – specifics are just not possible that far ahead. But let’s hope the trend of the trough on the East Coast continues to bring us some relief from the heat in the middle of July!

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Still glowing from the ride at Talladega last Tuesday. Special thanks to them for the invitation and wonderful hospitality. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so tomorrow morning. I hope that your day is good with at least one act of kindness somewhere in the day! Godspeed.

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