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For many Alabama communities this is the warmest day so far in 2008… at 2:00 observations included 84 in Mobile, 83 in Tuscaloosa, and 82 in Birmingham. Those numbers will slowly creep upward through mid-afternoon. The sky is mostly sunny with only a few fair weather cumulus clouds around.
TO THE NORTHWEST: Severe storms are dropping southward through Arkansas, western Tennessee, and the northwest corner of Mississippi. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the best instability values are west of I-55 (Memphis to Jackson), and that is where thunderstorm formation will be maximized for the rest of the afternoon. A few showers could clip Northwest Alabama this evening, but most of our state will remain dry.
THE DAYS AHEAD: Expect another mostly sunny, warm day tomorrow with a high in the low 80s; possibly mid 80s for West Alabama. We will introduce a chance of widely scattered showers or storms Thursday afternoon, Thursday night, and Friday with a weak wave passing north of the state. The chance of widely scattered showers and storms will continue into the weekend as a surface front stalls out just north of Alabama on Saturday. As we have discussed here, we don’t expect a wash-out on any of these days, but be aware that there will be showers and storms around Thursday through Sunday. Otherwise, the weather will be warm and humid with a high in the low 80s on those days, perhaps closer to 80 on Saturday and Sunday.
If you like the numbers game, the chance of a shower or thunderstorm at the Talladega Superspeedway Saturday and Sunday is about one in three.
MODEL MADNESS: Lots of differing solutions for our weather next week, but the 12Z GFS and ECMWF are now beginning to latch onto the idea of a strong upper trough driving a significant cold front through here Sunday night or Monday. This will bring a good chance of showers and strong storms, followed by cooler air Monday night and Tuesday. No frost or freeze concern, but it could get us down in the low 40s early Tuesday. Confidence in this is not all that high due to recent model inconsistency, but we will sure move in this direction with our forecast package.
LONG RANGE: The 12Z GFS shows a more active pattern here in early May, with potential for two decent rain producers from May 1 through May 8.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will have a new episode loaded by 10:00 or so tonight.
I had a great time seeing the kindergarten students today at Oxford Elementary School… be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
