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Looks like the summertime weather pattern is going to stay locked in for Central Alabama for the next week or so. We continue to deal with very weak features which can enhance our daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, but the bulk of the weather for the next week or so will continue to be scattered showers driven by the heating of the day and lasting into the evening hours.
For today look for isolated showers and thunderstorms with probably the best chances for rain to our west across Mississippi. Precipitable water values over Central Alabama appear to be down around one and a half inches while two inch values are showing across Mississippi. This should favor more coverage to our west and somewhat less in our area.
We are still watching a weak upper level disturbance that continues to be forecast to move into the Florida Panhandle around mid-week. This weak feature should help to bring an increase to shower coverage, however, it is weak. While it comes across South Georgia Monday and Tuesday, the upper level disturbance just to our west continues to retrograde moving into Texas on Tuesday and washing out under the big western ridge.
By Friday, the trough over the eastern US begins to sharpen a tad as the upper ridge in the west pushes northward somewhat. This sharpening of the trough should bring a weak cold front into the Tennessee River Valley. This boundary will be a focus for showers and perhaps help to increase the coverage of showers and thunderstorms next weekend.
With little change in the overall weather pattern outside of these weak features, continue to look for highs in the lower 90s – 91 to 94 – each day with lows generally in the lowers 70s. Rainfall will continue to vary widely with the daily heat driven showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather risk is confined to the northern tier of the US while the tropics remain quiet.
Looking into week two, the GFS continues with the trend of the trough along the East Coast of the US, so we stay out of the extreme heat while the Central US continues to bake under the upper ridge positioned over Kansas and Nebraska.
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-Brian-
