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Looks like a classic summer mix of sun and storms across Alabama today; the best chance of sun will come during the mid to late morning, and the best chance of storms will be this afternoon and into the evening hours. We still think there will be enough cloud cover around today to keep most communities in the 80s during the day, although a few spots could bump the 90 degree mark. The chance of any one spot getting wet today is about one in three.
LOOKING AHEAD: Model data suggests now that showers and storms tomorrow will be more widely spaced, but then we have an increase in showers and storms Friday afternoon and Friday night with a surface front approaching from the north. Some of those storms Friday evening could be pretty healthy as the upper wind flow increases across the Deep South; we will have to watch for any severe storms.
The last four runs of the GFS have been very consistent in developing a very deep upper trough along the eastern seaboard this weekend, and that drives a surface front all the way down into South Alabama. If the 12Z run continues this trend, we will greatly scale back the chance of showers over the weekend, and go pretty much rain-free Sunday and Monday along with lower humidity levels and cooler nights. But again, lets get that 12Z run in the house before we make the change. Dry, continental air just doesn’t visit Alabama too often in July.
TROPICS: While wave activity seems to be on the increase, still nothing organized across the Atlantic basin.
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