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THIS AFTERNOON: Once again, strong storms have formed in the moist environment across Alabama this afternoon. Some of the heaviest rain at 3:00 was over St. Clair and Randolph Counties of East Alabama; other storms were developing quickly and moving slowly to the east. All of the showers and storms should be off the radar by 11:00 tonight.
TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: No real change, partly sunny days with scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms. The chance of any one spot getting wet tomorrow and Friday is about one in three, and afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, much like today.
THE WEEKEND: The GFS seems to have a decent handle on the vorticity center that is now over Texas; it moves this feature to a point near the Alabama/Mississippi line Saturday, and this could very well actually enhance the coverage of showers and storms, especially for the southern two-thirds of the state. We will probably need to hit the chance of showers and storms a little harder for Saturday, but the vort max moves to the east, and afternoon storms should be rather widely spaced Sunday. The 12Z GFS is printing a high of 89 for Birmingham on Saturday, followed by 91 Sunday, which sounds pretty good.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: A nasty 5940 meter 500 mb heat bubble to the west will try to nose in here early next week, meaning highs in the low 90s Monday and Tuesday with only isolated afternoon showers and storms. Then, later in the week, the GFS tries to develop an upper trough over the eastern U.S., which would actually have a chance of bringing some drier air into Alabama from the north by Friday (June 10).
AT THE BEACH: Not really very good weather. It looks like thunderstorms will be more numerous than usual Thursday, Friday and Saturday and thinning out some on Sunday. This afternoon, showers and storms were increasing off the Gulf Coast and those will be moving inland. The extra clouds and showers will temper the temperature a bit with highs between 85 and 88, except heating up to about 92 on Sunday when showers and storms will be less numerous.
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