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THIS AFTERNOON: Showers are developing across the state this afternoon; most of them are east of I-65 as I write this around 1:00, but any one place will stand about a one in three chance of getting wet for the next 6 hours. Like recent days, the storms that form won’t move much, and heavy rain is likely with the stronger storms. All of the showers and storms should be off the board by midnight.
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY: We are watching with interest the upper low over Southeast Texas; that feature will drift eastward, and should be over Southwest Alabama Saturday. This, combined with the blanket of moist air over Alabama, will keep a pretty decent chance of showers and storms in the forecast through Saturday. While most of them will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower due to the cold air aloft associated with the upper low. Highs will stay in the 86 to 89 degree range for most places.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: The idea is that the number of afternoon showers and storms will decrease a bit here, but I am not totally confident that will actually happen. The upper low will weaken and lift out by Saturday night, but ample moisture remains, and the risk of a passing afternoon shower or storm will certainly need to stay in the forecast on these two days. Afternoon highs will be at or just over 90 degrees.
NEXT WEEK: A weak front will approach and wash out, another front approaches later in the week, and this time the GFS hangs it up around here and it fizzles out, much like most fronts do in summertime around here. Bottom line is that the weather won’t be dramatically different for much of next week. Partly sunny, very warm, humid days with some risk of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in scattered spots. Highs will be in the 88 to 91 degree range; the most intense heat in the nation will stay well to the west. Looks like Phoenix could hit 110 degrees by Sunday or Monday under that 5940 meter upper high.
TROPICS: All is quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.
AT THE BEACH: Showers and storms are likely on the Gulf Coast each day through Saturday thanks to the upper low to the west; only about 2 to 4 hours of sunshine each day. The showers and storms will thin out a bit by Sunday with 4 to 6 hours of sun. Highs will be in the mid 80s. Scroll down for some shots taken at Pensacola Beach this morning. No doubt the biggest issue down there is not the weather, but the oil slick just offshore.
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We will keep the blog updated with fresh information on thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon into tonight… the next full discussion will be posted early tomorrow.
