The pattern continues to look cold and unsettled for the next few weeks. I continue to stand by the statements:
*Much of the nation east of the Rockies will have come of the coldest air in many years (in some cases in two decades) in coming weeks
*There will be winter storm threats across the southern U.S. in coming weeks
I need to point out that there are multiple people who write our seven day forecast; J.B. Elliott and Bill Murray write the forecast packages at times, and while we do our best to coordinate, there will occasions when what I write on the blog is not in agreement with their forecast. I will not write another forecast package until Tuesday morning, so you will see my opinion reflected there. Bill and J.B. are very good at what they do, we just disagree sometimes.
Parts of the southern U.S. will have a snow/ice threat later in the week. The model output statistics (MOS) numbers are laughable, and there is no way we have highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s on a daily basis for the next seven days. I have high confidence in these statements; I am sure there are some that will beg to differ, and I will fight for their right to voice that opinion. But I have been down this road many times before in the last 30 years; experience is a great teacher. Computer models are not.
The models are really having a hard time, and most likely are incapable of handling specific details of events in coming days. But, it sure looks like the first possibility of wintry precipitation will begin Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and it could be a problem as far south as parts of North Alabama. A heavy snow event could be ahead later Thursday into Thursday night, and that seems most likely a little north of here. The first call on all of this will come early tomorrow. I will write a long discussion here on the blog, and will be discussing it on radio and the Weather Xtreme video.
All of the southern region NWS offices are getting on the same page.
The cold air that floods the nation following the end of the week wave, for some places, will be the coldest in ten, maybe 20 years. Then comes another storm… but I take them one at a time, as you know.
I will have a complete discussion plus the video posted by daybreak tomorrow….
