A major severe weather outbreak is likely anytime from now until midnight. See the high STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) values from the RUC at 1:00… remember, anything over 2 is very significant. These are about as high as they get.

Not much change in our thinking for tomorrow… See the SREF output below, valid at 7:00 p.m. tomorrow. This is the chance of the significant tornado parameter (STP) exceeding 5 units; the model gives that a 90 percent chance in … Continue reading →