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Looks like some interesting and active weather ahead in coming weeks….
First off, some 5:00 a.m. observations this morning:
Devils Lake, ND 39
Wiliston, ND 39
Lynn Lake, Manitoba 29
THE ALABAMA STORY: We have two cold fronts on the way; front number one will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Rainfall amounts of one-half inch are likely, with some spots possibly getting up to one inch. Most of the showers and storms will come in the 2:00 p.m. to 2:00 a.m. time frame. And, we expect the high today to be in the upper 80s because of the increasing clouds and afternoon showers.
TOMORROW/THURSDAY: The rain opportunity will all depend on where front number one hangs up. The 00Z GFS suggests the front hangs up along I-59, meaning the best chance of showers and storms on these days will be south of Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Gadsden. There would be a few showers as far north as U.S. 278, however (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden).
FRIDAY: Front number two rolls in here Friday night with another robust round of showers and storms. Again, rainfall amounts should average around one-half inch, with heavier amounts in spots. Tough to call a specific time right now on the best chance of rain, but I would say anywhere from 10:00 a.m. until 10:00 p.m. looks good for getting wet for now. We can adjust that as the event gets closer.
THE WEEKEND: How about a really nice cool down for the weekend. The GFS has come in cooler, and is now suggest 55 for Birmingham early Sunday morning. Sure sounds good to me… if that is correct then some of the cooler valleys across North Alabama will have a shot at getting down into the upper 40s. The weekend will feature lots of sunshine, a fresh north breeze, and low humidity levels. Daytime highs should be in the low 80s.
TROPICS: The big wave about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands could become a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. You have to figure this thing will be forced to more northward at some point in the future in response to the upper trough that will bring the cooler air down our way this weekend. But, the GFS builds a big 1035 mb high east of Maine early next week, and that might force this thing back toward the U.S. East Coast. Lots questions here, but I doubt if this is a good candidate to be a Gulf of Mexico storm.
And, speaking of the Gulf, the weather remains unsettled over the southern Gulf. Still some chance a depression forms in the region, drifting slowly to the west. And, again, you have to think that might be pulled northward at some point late this week in response to the upper air pattern. Of course, it might not develop, and it also might move inland into Texas or Mexico. We will sit back and watch, as we always do.
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This morning I will be speaking to the senior adults at First Baptist Church of Palmerdale… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video will be up by 3:30!
