On March 20, 1948, a destructive tornado hit Tinker AFB in Oklahoma City. Damage was severe. Following the tornado, Air Force brass wanted to know if there was any way that an operational tornado forecast could be issued. Air Force Weather Officers Captain Robert Miller and Major Ernest J. Fawbush had been studying the patterns that resulted in tornadoes. The following day, General Fred Borum ordered the pair to study whether an advance forecast for tornadoes could be issued in time to allow for the base to prepare.
Fawbush and Miller studied the charts from the 20th. They pored over observations and weather maps from other days that had seen tornadoes develop. On the morning of March 25th, just five days after the first destructive tornado, they recognized the weather patterns as being similar to those from the 20th. Amazingly similar. As the day wore on, it became even more apparent that conditions were becoming favorable for tornadoes. A thunderstorm forecast was issued.
At midafternoon, General Borum pressured the men for a specific tornado forecast. Fawbush and Miller knew that if they were wrong, confidence in the tornado forecasts they wanted to develop would be damaged. They also knew that the likelihood of two tornadoes hitting the base within five days of each other was infinitesimal. But as they looked at the parameters, they gained confidence in their forecast. Their response to General Borum was to issue the first operational tornado forecast.
Preparations at Tinker went into high gear. Everything was battened down as a strong squall line moved toward the base. As the line of storms passed the base, Miller decided to call it a night and head home, thinking that the forecast had been a bust. As he listened to the radio on the way home, he heard the annoucer talking about a tornado hitting the base. He could not understand why the tornado from nearly a week ago was still being discussed.
WHen he got home, he could not reach the base because phones were out. He drove back to find an excited Fawbush, who reported that a tornado had indeed touched down on the base. Damages were much less than with the previous tornado and organized tornado forecasting was born.
