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Wow… maybe the model MOS numbers weren’t as bad for today as I thought this morning, and nobody is complaining. Some moisture trapped in the lower levels of the atmosphere has kept low clouds in place through much of the morning, keeping temperatures way down over the northern half of Alabama. The air through the rest of the atmosphere, above that shallow moist layer, is very dry, so showers and storms will be hard to find across North Alabama today. A quick peek at the radar at mid-afternoon showers almost all of the showers and storms south of a line from Aliceville to Moundville to Montgomery.
Birmingham was reporting only 82 degrees at 2:00… we expected the temperature to be in the low 90s at this hour. But hey, nobody seems to be complaining about this forecast bust. We are seeing some nice breaks in the overcast now, and we might reach the low 90s before the day is done.
FOURTH OF JULY: I seriously think we will have conditions like today; any morning clouds should burn off much quicker, and with a good supply of sunshine we will climb up into the low to mid 90s. The chance of any one neighborhood seeing a shower over the northern half of the state will remain very small. Pretty much the same story for Thursday.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Another surface front approaches Alabama from the north by the end of the week, and you have to figure we will see a general increase in the number of afternoon showers and storms over the weekend. The 12Z GFS actually looks pretty dry, but it did a horrible job with the storms last weekend three to four days in advance, and I think we will need to mention scattered afternoon showers and storms Friday through Sunday. Afternoon highs should be in the low to mid 90s.
TROPICS: The little tropical wave around 9N and 40W is still hanging in there. The models move this thing toward the Leeward Islands in four to five days, with some slow development. While the sea surface temperatures are marginally conducive for tropical storm development, there is a vast amount of dry air across the Atlantic basin right now (as we pointed out in the morning discussion), and I am not sure this thing can survive with so much dry air around it. We will keep an eye on it… for now it it a long way away (about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles).
We also note the mass of convection that has moved off the lower Texas coast; sometimes little features like that in our “backyard” can offer a surprise.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. There is a very interesting story over there about the new director of the National Hurricane Center, and a surprise visit he received from NWS officials. I am a big Bill Proenza fan, and he sure has my support. Sometimes when you speak the truth you feel you have the weight of the world on your shoulders.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather hosted by David Black and featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down to see the show notes from the new episode that was posted this morning.
I will do one Weather Xtreme video tomorrow, probably around mid-morning, and then we will resume the “two a day” schedule for Thursday and Friday. If you are traveling for the holiday, be safe!
