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Get set for the hottest weather so far this year… but first…
STORMS TONIGHT? We are watching with interest the MCS over Missouri, moving down into Arkansas. Our surface based CAPE values are as high as 3,000 j/kg over North Alabama, so there is certainly some decent instability available. I think we have to keep the chance of showers and storms going tonight, especially for areas northwest of Birmingham. The showers and storms should slowly die out tonight as the instability wanes and the cluster moves away from good upper support.
There is also the chance scattered showers and storms will form during the next hour or two in the warm and unstable air across Alabama, but warmer air aloft today is so far keeping the cumulus fields flatter than yesterday.
REST OF THE WEEK: Looks like we head into the 90 to 94 degree range on a daily basis for the rest of the week as the upper ridge noses in from the west. The warm air aloft associated with the ridge also means fewer afternoon showers and storms. Understand we can’t rule out a few afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow through Friday, but they should be few and far between, and many communities will be dry. This should be the hottest weather so far this year for Alabama.
WEEKEND PEEK: A short wave passing north of Alabama might dent the ridge slightly, so there might be a slightly better chance of an afternoon storm in spots Saturday and Sunday, but the weather still looks generally dry and hot with low 90s likely both days.
VOODOO LAND: The 12Z GFS shows the ridge breaking down around June 13-15, allowing a weak front in here that might enhance the chance of showers and storms, but that is all voodoo for now.
TROPICS: The old circulation that was tropical storm Arthur is causing heavy rain over parts of Central America and Southeast Mexico… the rest of the Atlantic basin is rather quiet now and tropical storm formation is not expected through mid-week.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will have a new show posted tonight by 10:00 or so… featuring Minneapolis meteorologist Paul Douglas. Should be a very interesting show…
I sure enjoyed speaking at the morning session of the AMSTI Summer Institute this morning… hundreds of teachers were there giving up some of their summer vacation so they can be better prepared to teach math and science to their students in the fall. What a great crowd!
Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
