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For the first time in five days we have reached 90 degrees in Birmingham… the 2:00 observation is right at 90 degrees. The dewpoint is 67, for a relative humidity of 46 percent. And, as you can see from the updates below, storms have fired up in Northeast Alabama. More storms could form during the next few hours… I notice the surface based CAPE is 3,000 now over Northwest Alabama, so that might be a hot spot for storm development for the rest of the afternoon.
TOMORROW: A rather robust surface front for July will be approaching from the north, and we expect a general increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, possibly into tomorrow night. In fact, a few storms could be strong to severe tomorrow afternoon as some decent dynamics for mid-summer come together. The best chance of showers and storms will be from about 3:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight.
THE WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS has the surface front near I-20 by midday Saturday; this, of course, means the best chance of showers and storms will be along and south of that boundary. The Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama should be dry all day. Then, on Sunday, the dry air moves southward, and the entire northern half of Alabama should be dry with lower humidity values and cooler nights. The GFS drops the low in Birmingham all the way down to 61 degrees early Sunday; the NAM is showing 63. I checked the record book for Sunday (July 22), and we would have to drop all the way down to 55 to tie the record low for Birmingham, which was set in 1947. I doubt if we get that cool, but 61 sure sounds good to me.
NEXT WEEK: Moisture still looks pretty scarce Monday and Tuesday of next week, and any showers or storms should be pretty isolated. They should increase in coverage during the latter half of the week as moist air begins to return.
TROPICS: We note the nice flare of convection with the tropical wave over the far eastern part of the Caribbean this afternoon. This wave will move west/northwest, and should then be pulled northeast along the deep upper trough over the eastern U.S. over the weekend. The Canadian model developed this thing into a near hurricane yesterday, and had it near Long Island on Monday. It will be interesting to watch this, but one way or another it won’t impact Alabama weather.
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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather hosted by David Black and featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
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