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Hot weather will be the big story in Alabama this week. Not as hot as last week, but hot enough.
TODAY: The NAM is more bullish on afternoon convection today; cooler air aloft on the model means more instability, and more instability means a decent chance of scattered storms during the afternoon and evening hours. However, the GFS shows a much stronger capping inversion, and it looks pretty dry. For now we will just mention “isolated” afternoon storms, and watch the radar as the day rolls along. The high today should reach the upper 90s in most locations.
MID-WEEK: The upper air ridge strengthens again, and 100 degree heat is certainly possible tomorrow, Wednesday, and Thursday. There might be an afternoon storm on those days, but they will be few and far between due to the cap.
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND: The ridge begins to break down a bit, and we should see more in the way of afternoon showers and storms, but they will remain scattered. Afternoon highs will be in the 94 to 98 degree range. We will also be watching tropical developments….
DEAN: Scroll down for J.B’s latest post on Dean… thanks to J.B. and Bill Murray for their excellent work this weekend; I don’t think you will find another blog in the nation with such in-depth reports on this big storm.
Dean would reach category five status at some point on the journey across the western Caribbean today. No change in the model output or NHC track… excellent agreement that this one remains well to the south of the U.S. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics.
FELIX? The Canadian GEMS develops the system northeast of Puerto Rico during the week, and moves it, as a developed tropical storm or hurricane, across the Bahamas and into the southern part of Florida on Friday. The GFS doesn’t pick up on this, however. But, the GEMS did a great job with Erin, and it might be on to something. If Felix does form in this area, it most likely will be forced westward under the ridge, and the threat to the Florida peninsula is very real. Could it wind up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico? Sure… we will be watching this week with interest.
LONG RANGE: The heat pattern does break down nicely at the end of the month, and a mean trough develops over the eastern half of the nation should should mean occasional fronts moving down from the north, cooler temperatures, and a much better chance at some beneficial rain from time to time.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather hosted by David Black and featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record a new show tonight, and we will run through the many “guess the Dean” landfall entries from last week and see if we can find a winner. That show will be posted late tonight, or early tomorrow.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. Lots of good stories over there…
I am doing a program on meteorology this morning at Huffman Middle School; I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day and STAY COOL.
