FAST FACTS…4 P.M. CDT
LOCATION…17.3 NORTH…76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES S OF KINGSTON, JAMAICA OR 320 MILES ESE of GRAND CAYMAN
MOVEMENT…W-20 MPH
MAX WINDS…145 MPH
CENTRAL PRESSURE…930MB/27.46 INCHES
The eyewall of Dean is roaring across southern Jamaica.
At 4 p.m. CDT…Kingston/Manley was reporting hurricane force winds from the SE at 81 mph Visibility was less than one mile. The barometer was down to 29.29 inches. No report from Montego Bay since last night.
On Grand Cayman…winds were NE-12 mph under partly cloudy skies. Temp 87F. DP 78F Pressure 29.80 inches. On Cayman Brac…winds NNE-16, mostly cloudy skies, temperature 89F, dewpoint 80F, pressure 29.80 inches.
The track thinking is pretty much unchanged. It is becoming clear that the upper ridge will build westward with the hurricane. It may be a case of the outflow from the hurricane helping to strengthen the ridge. This is what we sometimes say when we indicate that the hurricane is controlling its environment.
It looks like the Caymans will be more than 100 miles nortth of the center. Hurricane force winds extend out about 60 miles from the center, so hopefully they will escape with out experiencing hurricane conditions.
The upper low over the Gulf is clearly not going to be a player in the motion.
This means a landfall in Mexico is very likely after Dean crosses the Yucatan. Some northward shift in the track is still possible, and while not out of the question, it is looking like the hurricane will make landfall south of Texas.
Dean still could become a category five hurricane tomorrow.
——————————————————————————–
