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At 2:00, the temperature in Birmingham was 87 degrees. Looks like our string of consecutive 100 degree days is finally over at ten. I forecast a high today of 101, and I haven’t heard of one complaint about the forecast bust! We can thank clouds and nearby showers for the big change. But, the showers this morning have been isolated, and the weather is still very hot elsewhere… other 2:00 observations:
Muscle Shoals 100
Huntsville 100
Tuscaloosa 99
Gadsden 99
Decatur 99
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND: The weather still looks pretty hot through the weekend and into much of next week as the upper high just doesn’t want to go away. We could easily see a few more 100 degree days through the middle of next week; we will forecast highs in the 97 to 100 degree range on most days. And, there will be enough moisture and instability for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, but widespread, beneficial rain doesn’t look likely.
DEAN DEAN THE WIND MACHINE: Hurricane Dean is now a category three storm packing sustained winds of 125 mph. No reason to think the system will weaken anytime soon, in fact most all of the models bring the storm to category four strength within 36 hours as it moves across the open Caribbean.
The latest NHC track has Dean moving right on top of Jamaica on Sunday; this is a major threat to life and property on that island. That same forecast track has Dean moving right over the tip of Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula, and then into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. An extrapolation of that track will take Dean to a point near Brownsville, Texas late next week. Most of the models are in good agreement with that scenario.
But… the GFDL is the model generating the buzz on the street. It is clearly an outlier, but it has Dean moving into the Louisiana coast west of New Orleans on Tuesday (it is much faster than other models). And, we also need to point out that the GFS is an outlier to the south; it moves Dean into the coast of Mexico, well to the south of Brownsville, late next week. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you can see all of this model output. Also, raw data and official advisories are available on the ABC 33/40 tropical page as always.
I think history is very important… and storms in the vicinity of Dean have quite a history of bothering some part of the Texas coast within five to seven days. But, as I pointed out this morning, there is little skill in a specific landfall forecast this far in advance. We will continue to wait and watch.
ALABAMA’S GULF COAST: If you have a beach trip planned to the Alabama coast (or the Florida panhandle) next week, I would not change any plans right now. While there is no guarantee, the heat ridge here across the Deep South most likely will keep the primary impact of Dean well to the west, expect for the rough surf the storm will generate all along the Central Gulf coast. Just stay in touch with the latest developments here…
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. Many interesting stories over there as always…
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather hosted by David Black and featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
We will keep the blog hopping with fresh information on Dean over the weekend and next week… Brian Peters will have the Weather Xtreme videos here tomorrow and Sunday…. Have a wonderful weekend!
