The Thursday edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
Once again, a reminder we are now on a holiday schedule and there will be only one video per day through New Years Day… we will resume the “two a day” video production schedule on Tuesday January 2.
WET WEATHER AHEAD: Our first real beneficial rain since November 15 will take place during the next 36 hours. I probably hit the rain a little too hard today; we will have some rain at times, but it sure looks like the heaviest rain will come tonight and tomorrow as the better dynamics arrive. The WRF/NAM model is printing 0.97″ for Birmingham, while the GFS remains more aggressive with 2.58″. I still figure most spots will wind up with between one and two inches. A little thunder possible, but no severe weather expected.
THE WEEKEND: Still looks like we can squeeze in a dry day on Saturday. Afternoon temperatures will reach the low 60s, and the sun should be out at times. Nice day for the bowl game at Legion Field Saturday, which kicks off at 12 Noon.
The 06Z GFS (the latest run available right now) has trended northward with our next wave on Sunday. At this point it looks like all of the state will get wet with the surface low forming in the northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday; the model is suggesting the best chance of rain will come from about 5:00 p.m. Sunday through 8:00 a.m. Monday. We might have some thunderstorms involved, and rainfall of up to one inch will be possible.
You might recall earlier in the week we talked about the idea of some Christmas Eve snow in the cold sector of this storm from Dallas to Indianapolis. That hope has greatly faded, but with this northward shift that could mean some snow flakes Sunday evening for parts of far Northeast Texas, Arkansas, and extreme southern Missouri.
CHRISTMAS DAY: The rain will end Monday morning, but clouds will linger much of the day. And, the weather finally turns colder. Looks like we will hover in the 40s all day with a cool north breeze. The upper trough responsible for the Gulf of Mexico storm seems to dig deeper across the southeast U.S. Monday night, and we might even have some risk of snow flurries Monday night or Tuesday morning in a few spots over North Alabama. No big deal if it happens, but that would be fun for Christmas night.
NEXT WEEK: The next chance of rain following Christmas will come around Friday December 29. The 06Z GFS goes nuts with a long wave trough and much colder air rolling in here over the following weekend (December 30-31), but I am not sure we need to buy into that just yet with a neutral to positive NAO and no other run supporting the idea.
The good news is that for now we don’t see any setup for snow or ice problems here in Alabama that would bring any travel problems through the arrival of the new year.
BLIZZARD NEWS: Keep up with the latest news on the Colorado Blizzard of 2006, and other weather news over on our sister site, weatherparty.com.
I will write a blog discussion a little later today… so stay tuned!
