Three Dry Days Ahead

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DRY THROUGH FRIDAY: The sky has become partly sunny across the northern half of Alabama this afternoon as drier air works into the state. We are looking at very pleasant spring weather through Friday, with sunny warm days and clear cool nights. We will be in the mid 70s tomorrow, close to 80 Thursday, followed by mid 80s Friday as a southerly flow gets established.

SATURDAY SOAKER: Not much change in our thinking for the weekend. A major storm system will blow in from the west, setting the stage for a widespread rain/thunderstorm event on Saturday. The rain should begin during the pre-dawn hours Saturday, with rain and storms much of the day into Saturday night. We have potential for 1 to 2 inches of rain statewide, and a few strong storms are possible by late afternoon as surface based CAPE values rise to over 1,000 j/kg. However, the all day type rain should limit instability values preventing a major severe weather threat. But, severe weather setups are determined by mesoscale features we really can’t determine until a day or two before the event, so we will continue to watch the situation in coming days. SPC has defined severe weather risk areas west of Alabama Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, but we are not in any formal risk.

The rain should end early in the day Sunday, with the sky becoming partly to mostly sunny by Sunday afternoon. The high Saturday will be in the mid to upper 70s, followed by low to mid 80s Sunday.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: We have tried to be as optimistic as possible, but Saturday does not look good. The showers and storms will persist throughout the afternoon and Saturday night. By Sunday morning, the cold front should be halfway across Alabama. Showers and storms will end fairly early over the west and central portions. For the Talladega area, we believe all of the rain will be gone by mid to late morning. The sun should break out during the afternoon with temperatures at the race track peaking between 82 and 85.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the 12Z GFS shows a dry day Monday, and then brings in a cold front Tuesday with a chance of showers, followed by dry air for Wednesday and Thursday. Still no sign of any really serious severe weather set-up through early May.

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I really had a great time today visiting with the folks at Hardin’s Chapel Bible Church in Ragland… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…