MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2010
AREAS AFFECTED…ERN LA…CNTRL/SRN MS…CNTRL/SRN AL
CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 91…92…93…
VALID 241528Z – 241700Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
91…92…93…CONTINUES.
TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN WITH POTENTIALLY
STRONG AND LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES/SUPERCELLS LIKELY. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.
A COUPLE OF LARGE TSTMS…EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS…
CONTINUE TO THRIVE WITHIN STRONG WAA REGIME ACROSS SERN MS AT 15Z.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO CNTRL/SRN AL THROUGH LATE
MORNING ALONG NRN EDGE OF UPR 60S DEW POINTS. LOW-LCLS AND 400+
M2/S2 0-1KM SRH WILL ENHANCE THE TORNADO RISKS. NEARLY 8 DEG C/KM
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
ACTIVITY…PER LATEST 4KM WRF-NMM…MAY REACH INTO ERN AL/WRN GA BY
22Z.
IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS…LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEGATIVE-TILT UPR SYSTEM OVER THE
ARKLATEX. WHILE ITS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR…MORE STORMS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP IN THE DESTABILIZING/EXPANDING WARM SECTOR OVER THE LWR MS
VLY AND SPREAD ENE ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MS…ERN LA AND SRN AL THROUGH
THE AFTN. BEST INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER
CNTRL/NRN MS NWD…BUT IMPRESSIVE LLVL SHEAR PROFILES AND
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MAINTAIN POSSIBILITIES OF
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL AND ERN LA
THROUGH THE AFTN AS WELL. THIS WILL BE PARTICULARLY THE CASE WITH
DISCRETE STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING QLCS INVOF
THE WIND SHIFT PROGRESSING W-E THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH/LWR MS VLY THIS
AFTN.
..RACY.. 04/24/2010
ATTN…WFO…FFC…BMX…HUN…MOB…JAN…LIX…LCH…SHV…
LAT…LON 32279193 34208628 34378513 33448506 32148605 30528769
30369251 32279193
