Conditions are very ripe for tornadoes tonight from any storms t hat do form over eastern Mississippi into western Alabama up into southern Tennessee.
A weather watch may be required. The only question is whether storms will form or not. If they do, they will have to be monitored.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0919 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010
AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TO NERN MS
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 020219Z – 020315Z
STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS AND ACTIVITY MOVING FROM NWRN AL INTO
MIDDLE TN WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A NEW WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED YET THIS EVENING…BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT
WARRANT A NEW WW AT THIS TIME.
MODIFIED 00Z JAN/BHM SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS INDICATED A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE /SFC-1 KM SHEAR 30-35 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH
AOA 300 M2/S2/. THE AIR MASS REMAINS UNCAPPED OVER MS WITH MLCAPE
AOA 2500 J/KG AND LOW LCLS. MODIFIED 00Z BHM SOUNDING FOR 01Z
SURFACE CONDITIONS AT MSL SUGGEST DIABATIC COOLING IS INCREASING THE
SBCINH WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE BASED THREAT FARTHER E INTO AL.
DESPITE A FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT…THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL STORMS YET THIS EVENING TO THE S
AND E OF WW 127.
…NWRN AL INTO MIDDLE TN…
WEAKER INSTABILITY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO MIDDLE TN MAY WEAKEN THE
ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THIS REGION ONCE IT TRACKS NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD FROM SERN THROUGH SRN MIDDLE
TN. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH EFFECTIVE
SRH VALUES 300-500 M2/S2.
…PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL MS…
FARTHER SW INTO CENTRAL MS…THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES…AND THIS REGION BEING WELL REMOVED FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH FARTHER W SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT COULD BE LIMITED.
HOWEVER…ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR A TORNADO THREAT.
..PETERS.. 05/02/2010
ATTN…WFO…OHX…BMX…HUN…MEG…JAN…
