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Today should be the day we break the record for consecutive 100 degree days in Birmingham. This will be the ninth day in a row with triple digit heat; the old record was 8 in a row from July 1980. Unfortunately, it sure looks like the string of 100 degree days will extend through Friday, and possibly the weekend. The computer models are bringing in highs down into the mid 90s by Saturday and Sunday, but they have been 5 to 10 degrees to low in the last week. The lack of soil moisture is the big issue with the poor model performance, in my opinion.
Dewpoints remain low across North Alabama this morning, and once again today it looks like humidity values during the peak of heat will be only in the 20 percent range, making the triple digits much more tolerable. Heat index is no factor in this kind of airmass; in fact heat index values will be lower than the actual air temperatures. This is the “dry heat” folks in Phoenix talk about.
Moisture levels will rise by Friday and the weekend, and few isolated afternoon showers or storms could show up by then. Unfortunately, however, there is still no sign of any big rain event here for the next seven days.
LONG RANGE: The GFS does show a nice long wave trough from the Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley in about 12 days that would sure break the back of the heat, if the model is correct.
ERIN AND DEAN: Actually, tropical depression five has not been upgraded to Erin just yet, but it sure looks like that might happen this morning as our system in the Gulf has a nice CDO (central dense overcast) with good outflow. This thing will make landfall somewhere around Corpus Christi after midnight tonight, and the main issue will be heavy rain and the flooding potential along the Texas coastal plain.
TD number 5 actually looks better organized than Dean, the tropical storm in the Central Atlantic. Dean is moving steadily to the west, and should be in an environment more favorable for strengthening during the next few days. The models continue their shift to the left, and have Dean on a course that will bring it into the Gulf of Mexico next week, perhaps as a powerful hurricane. The 00Z GFS brings Dean to Galveston by Wednesday night or Thursday of next week; the 06Z run (just in house), however, takes it much farther to the south, into the Mexican coast. With the persistent heat ridge across the Deep South, you have to wonder if that idea has some merit.
Everyone can guess and debate, but the truth is that nobody knows where Dean will wind up making landfall at this point. It is all voodoo; we will just have to wait and watch. Don’t forget our WeatherBrains “guess the landfall game”; listen to this week’s WeatherBrains podcast to find out how to win a great prize.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
