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RIGHT NOW: A nice tropical rain shower is in progress here at ABC 33/40 in Riverchase… and we have a number of similar showers and storms in scattered pockets around the state. Quite frankly, the rain right now is not as widespread as I expected, but the coverage and intensity continues to increase, and most places should have some rain in the bucket by midnight.
REST OF THE WEEK: No real change in our thinking… wet is the word as tropical air remains in place (precipitable water values in excess of two inches, surface dewpoints in the 70 to 75 degree range).. The rain certainly won’t be continuous, but rain is possible at any hour of the day or night, and the rain could be heavy at times. The GFS prints 1.56″ of rain for the next 60 hours, and the NAM shows 1.04″ through 84 hours. Based on this airmass, and the stalled surface/upper low combination to the west, the HPC QPF of 3 to 4 inches looks very realistic.
Still no sign of any severe weather problems, and widespread flooding is not expected, although a few flash flood warnings are possible along the way. Afternoon highs will be close to 80 degrees.
OUR WEEKEND: The tropical low will become more diffuse, but very moist air stays in place Saturday and Sunday, so no doubt we will have to dodge occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the weekend. The upward motion provided by the daytime heating process could very well be the main catalyst for showers and storms, so the best chance of rain both days, most likely, will come during the afternoon and evening hours. But, in this kind of airmass, you sure can’t rule out the chance of some rain late at night, or during the morning.
DRIER AIR FINALLY??? The 12Z GFS maintains the idea of a deep long wave upper trough developing over the eastern half of the nation next week. This, if correct, will drive a well defined cold front down this way, most likely arriving Tuesday. Following the front, cooler and drier will invade the state by Wednesday. Sure looks like we will down in the low to mid 50s by daybreak Thursday, with potential for upper 40s across the cooler spots. Let’s hope this trend continues; that idea sure sounds good.
TROPICS: All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin, no organized systems now, and none are expected through Friday.
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