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SOGGY AIRMASS: Looks like high precipitable water values and dewpoints will linger over Alabama much of this week, meaning a shower or storm is possible at just about any time. But, it looks like the showers over the northern half of the state tonight and tomorrow will be rather scattered. We do note, however, that the NAM is pretty aggressive with rain tomorrow, and it can’t be totally ignored. For now we will just keep scattered showers going in the forecast for the next 36 hours.
WEDNESDAY: SPC has the northern half of Alabama in a severe weather risk on Wednesday, and it looks like another MCS, maybe even a decrecho, will roll in our direction from Texas or Oklahoma. Could be another day with a number of severe weather watches and warnings; as usual the severe weather threat will all boil down to mesoscale features we really won’t be able to identify until Wednesday morning. Heavy rain is possible as well, and in this kind of airmass you can easily pick up one inch of rain from just one tropical downpour.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Our old surface boundary will still be hanging around, and you have to mention at least a chance of scattered showers and storms on these days, with warm and humid conditions along with highs in the low to mid 80s.
THE WEEKEND: The trend continues toward fewer showers and storms, especially on Sunday, as an upper ridge begins to nose into the state from the southwest. Afternoon highs will be in the 80s both days with a mix of sun and clouds. The GFS hints that many communities will be totally dry on Sunday.
VOODOO LAND: Seems like the primary belt of mid-latitude westerlies will shift northward during the mid-month period; and if that is the case the weather will trend drier and warmer. But, this is May and it will be hard to remove at least some risk of an afternoon shower in a warm, tropical airmass.
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Thanks again to Jason Simpson for speaking to the kids at Meadow View Elementary in Alabaster this morning in my place… still trying to get my voice back. Look for those kids on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
