The surface low in the Caribbean is located south of the Dominican Republic today, heading to the west. It is designated 90L by the NHC. It has been undergoing too much wind shear for development, but that shear is lessening.
It may become a tropical depression later today or tomorrow.
There is significant agreement among several of the models that we could see a tropical storm in the western Caribbean. It could remain over the western Caribbean, or it could sweep to the northeast, perhaps affecting South Florida.
It is interesting to note that the GFS pays this system very little attention and gives it no billing.
Air Force Recon crews are on standby for tomorrow if an investigation is deemed necessary by the Hurricane Center.
If the system does develop into a tropical storm, it will be named Noel.
