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DEEP MOIST LAYER: The old low, our pal TD5, is near Vicksburg, Mississippi this morning, leaving Alabama in a deep southerly flow with very high PW values (2.25″ on last night’s 00Z sounding from the Shelby County Airport), so we expect scattered to numerous showers and storms later today, with potential for heavy rain in spots. The rain distribution won’t be especially even, but if you miss the rain today, there is a good chance you see some tomorrow as the pattern basically remains the same. Highs will be in the 89 to 92 degree range; still some chance that Birmingham will stay under 90 today or tomorrow, which will be the first time since July 4 if that happens. Otherwise, today will be the 45th consecutive day of 90 degree heat.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The GFS actually keeps the low just hanging around this weekend, near Mobile Bay. I wonder if this will be around at Christmas. So, scattered showers and storms will remain possible both Saturday and Sunday, possibly numerous at times. Highs tick up a bit into the mid 90s.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues the idea of drier air slipping into the northern half of Alabama during the first half of next week; we will begin to lean that way in our forecast with the showers becoming more widely spaced. Highs will stay in the low to mid 90s.
TROPICS: A weak wave over the Caribbean shows very little convection this morning; the rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet. The GFS continues the idea of a hurricane in the Atlantic in about 10 days; the 00Z run takes it close to Atlantic City (this, of course, is all voodoo). See the Weather Xtreme video for the details.
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