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Thanks to the remnants of TD5 much of the Southeast US can expect to see tropical showers today and again on Sunday while the weak upper low meanders around South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. But eventually, on Monday most likely, the remnant upper low will begin shifting steadily westward which will gradually reduce the showers and shower coverage as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday. That upper low eventually makes it to Texas by Thursday/Friday and then becomes absorbed in the overall flow pattern. So at least for today and Sunday expect our best chances for showers and thunderstorms.
And the rain from these storms could be heavy at times. This is a tropical air mass and with the slow movement of the storms, even small showers could produce some significant rain in a short period of time. One shower in my area last night produced about an inch of rain in 30 minutes or so. This was my third 1-inch or more rainfall event for the month of August giving me a monthly total of 4.38 inches.
Temperatures will be held down with the clouds and showers. But I still expect to see Central Alabama climb into the lower 90s for most spots. Some locations might not see the 90s and that will depend on the development and timing of showers. The area just northeast and east of Montgomery had showers ongoing this morning, and that’s one area that might not get into the 90s today if additional clouds and showers affect the area.
By the latter part of the week we get back to our daily diurnal showers with highs again warming to the middle 90s. But it seems unlikely that we’ll see triple digit heat again this week.
Tropics are unusually quiet. And the SPC keeps a small slight risk area over the Central US today and moves it to Ohio on Sunday.
The QPF chart suggests as much as 13 inches of rain over the immediate coastal area of Alabama. I think that is a little high, but certainly due to the tropical nature of the remnants of TD5, some heavy rain is likely. NWS Mobile issues a couple of flash flood warnings yesterday.
Voodoo country shows about what you might expect as the “energizer” ridge continues to hold tough. But the GFS has an interesting feature at the end of the cycle with a strong tropical system impacting Jacksonville, FL, around the 29th of August. I’m not going to go naming it just yet – this is a long way into voodoo country – but definitely something to watch as we are on the eve of the most active time for the tropics.
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Hopefully nearly everyone will get some rain over the next couple of days. Be sure to take the lightning seriously and do not risk your life unnecessarily. Have a great day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
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