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RIGHT NOW: What a nice day… after a cool morning, temperatures are generally in the low 80s. Birmingham is reporting 81 degrees at 2:00 p.m. following a low of 55. Pinson, just northeast of Birmingham, dropped to 48, while the low at Gadsden was a chilly 46 degrees. There a few scattered clouds over Northwest Alabama, but the sky is generally clear.
THE DAYS AHEAD: No big change through Wednesday with sunny warm days and clear cool nights. The forecast becomes much more challenging past Wednesday…
TO THE SOUTH: The NAM and the Canadian develop Tropical Storm Noel in the Gulf of Mexico at mid-week. The Canadian moves the system in the middle Texas coast, between Galveston and Corpus Christi, early Saturday. If something does form down there, most likely this is the correct solution; it should remain well to the south of the Alabama coast.
But, moisture levels will begin to increase, and a few isolated afternoon showers should begin to show up by Thursday. Widely scattered afternoon showers and storms are possible on Friday as moisture levels continue to increase.
TO THE NORTH: The 12Z run of the GFS has come in much more bullish on the feature in the northern stream late this week, and it now suggests it will drive a cold front all the way through Alabama by midday Sunday. We won’t jump on this yet, since other runs don’t support the idea, but if the model happens to be correct there will be a good chance of showers and storms late Saturday and Saturday night, followed by drier and cooler air rolling in here during the day Sunday.
But, for now we will hang on to a warm and humid forecast for the weekend with some risk of scattered, mainly afternoon showers and storms both Saturday and Sunday. Just be aware that we might have to revise that forecast down the road.
And, to make matters more complicated, the Canadian develops another system east of Miami over the weekend, and has it very close to Key West by Sunday as a major hurricane. This one is headed for the Gulf as well. But, the Canadian has been way off the mark at times this season, so no need to go hog wild worrying about this at this time. Be sure and watch the video and you can see all of this model madness we are talking about.
If the lead system develops into a tropical storm in the Gulf at mid-week (this will be called Noel), and a second one forms over the weekend around the Bahamas, the second one will be named Olga.
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