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Posting a little early today… I will be the emcee at a function tonight that requires me to stay a little ahead of the game today.
LOOKING FOR JERRY: Not much change in our overall thinking on the system in the Gulf of Mexico. Looks like it will go into the central Gulf coast, somewhere between Pensacola and Morgan City, Louisiana on Saturday as a tropical storm, or a category one hurricane at worst. It just won’t have too much time to get the inner structure together before landfall.
ALONG THE COAST: Lots of rain and wind for the coast from Panama City westward to New Orleans tomorrow afternoon through Saturday, but if the system remains below hurricane strength significant structural damage is not likely; the damage will mostly involve trees and power lines. There could be some coastal flooding, and even the risk of a few isolated tornadoes, along the central Gulf coast as the potential Jerry moves to the west/northwest toward the mouth of the Mississippi River, which seems to offer the highest probability of direct landfall right now.
I do need to point out that we have lots of latent heat content in the Gulf of Mexico, and as Brian Peters pointed out this morning, forecasting the intensity of a tropical cyclone is not our greatest skill. Folks from Pensacola over to Morgan City need to monitor this closely, and be ready to take quick action in case of some kind of rapid and unexpected deepening during the next 24 hours.
THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA: Still looks like generally dry weather tomorrow and Saturday as the deeper tropical moisture stays over the southern counties of Alabama. The GFS is a little more bullish on showers up into Central Alabama Saturday afternoon, and we will maintain the risk of a few showers on Saturday, mainly south of Birmingham.
The remnants of Jerry will move up through Louisiana and Arkansas late in the weekend, and Alabama will be on the moist, east side of the circulation. This should pull a good supply of tropical moisture up in here, and showers and storms are possible statewide on Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: The first half of next week looks relatively wet, with showers and thunderstorms possible Monday through Wednesday as the moist air lingers, and a surface front approaches from the northwest. There is some hint that drier air could move into Alabama by Thursday and Friday.
HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: Beautiful weather for tonight’s games; a clear sky with upper 70s at kickoff. Tomorrow night, there will be some high clouds around, but only a small risk of rain for any one stadium. The temperature will be close to 80 degrees for kickoff tomorrow night.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL: We will have our specific game forecasts tomorrow morning here on the blog, but it looks like the best chance of a shower will come down at Auburn Saturday night for their game against New Mexico State. In addition, a shower is not out of the question Saturday evening in Tuscaloosa.
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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.
I will have the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… and J.B. and the rest of the gang will have frequent updates for the rest of this afternoon and tonight as our system spins up in the Gulf of Mexico!
