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Sure looks like the attention will be on the Atlantic basin in coming days as our weather stays quiet. We do note the NAM brings in a chance of scattered showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday; for now we are rolling with a mostly dry forecast based on the GFS. We won’t change anything for now, but I get the idea will probably need to go ahead and mention some risk of widely scattered showers over the weekend. Nothing major, however.
Temperatures will peak in the 87 to 90 degree range through Sunday; quite a change from the triple digit heat wave we were dealing with one year ago.
Pretty much the same story early next week, some risk of scattered showers and storms, but nothing especially widespread through Wednesday.
HERE COMES FAY: We should have the data back from a Hurricane Hunter any minute on our tropical system just north of the Leeward Islands. Looks like a tropical storm in the making to me; not much change in the 12Z model set. The models take Fay west-northwest to the Bahamas, with a turn to the north just before reaching the east coast of Florida. Most of the models keep the system about 100 to 150 miles offshore, while the GFDL is the outlier, putting the system right on the coast near Cape Canaveral. One way or another, there will be plenty of nervous moments early next week for Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and Daytona Beach with this thing.
Seems like the steering currents collapse by mid-week, making for a very challenging situation. I get the idea Charleston could have a real problem, and if this moves into the Carolinas it could bring some serious flooding issues due to the slow movement.
Yep, I have to write the disclaimer, we are very early in the game and this could change. But, confidence is growing that this will not be a Gulf of Mexico storm.
VOODOO LAND: The GFS wants to develop a second system, bringing it to the middle Atlantic coast around August 29. We have to wonder if this will be the year of the Atlantic coast hurricane.
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