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This current MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) pulse really has the Atlantic basin rocking and rolling. Again, I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video to see all of the graphics associated with this discussion. Plenty of items to discuss today.
ALABAMA IN THE SHORT TERM: Our weather still looks quiet through Monday. Mostly sunny tomorrow; just a few widely scattered showers or storms Saturday through Monday. Highs will be in the low 90s, and the weather will be clear for high school football games tonight and tomorrow night (kickoff temps in the mid 80s).
The weather next week will be determined by our pal Gus…
GUSTAV: Looks like the stage is set for rapid deepening during the next 24 hours as the tropical system moves away from Jamaica and south of Cuba. No reason to think this won’t be a major hurricane as it enters the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Some uncertainty is creeping into the forecast for Gustav early next week. The GFS is hinting at a block north of the system, which would slow it down as it approaches the Louisiana coast, then forcing it to move westward (much like Fay off the Florida Atlantic coast) toward the upper Texas coast. While this is an outlier for now, the idea is certainly on the table.
The usually reliable GFDL takes Gustav right into Mobile Bay Monday night as a strong category 2, or a category 3 hurricane. Worst case situation for the Alabama coast.
The European brings Gustav into New Orleans as a weakening hurricane.
The blend of the other models is close to the official NHC track, which brings Gustav into the Louisiana coast between Morgan City and New Orleans Tuesday morning.
For now, we will maintain the idea of the greatest probability of landfall between Morgan City and Gulf Shores; if the GFS idea becomes more valid, then we will have to shift that area a little to the west tonight. And, once again, everyone from Corpus Christi all the way around to Tampa Bay will need to keep up with Gustav closely in coming days.
INTENSITY: Still very problematic. No doubt Gustav should be a powerful hurricane as it enters the Gulf, but the intensity at landfall is a very tough call. The possibility of some shear aloft and dry air entrainment is still on the table, and there is a very real chance Gustav could be in a weakening state as it moves ashore. But, big hurricanes don’t spin down quickly, and this could be a major hurricane at landfall (category 3 or higher).
COASTAL IMPACT: Still looks like landfall will come late Monday night or Tuesday morning, and the biggest problem with storm surge will be along and east of the eye. Evacuations could begin in the New Orleans area as early as Saturday, with possible evacuations for the Mississippi coast Sunday. It is also a possibility that an evacuation order will be needed for the Alabama coast Sunday. Emergency management officials will be making some big decisions tomorrow.
IMPACT ON NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA: If Gustav moves into Louisiana or Mississippi, we can expect lots of wind and rain Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday. But, we note the GFS (the model that turns Gustav to the left, toward the Texas coast), keeps much of North and Central Alabama generally dry. We will continue to mention a good chance of rain Tuesday and Wednesday with potential for high wind, but we will be adjusting that forecast as the track of Gustav becomes more clear in coming days.
HANNA: The new tropical storm east/northeast of Puerto Rico is forecast to become a hurricane, moving generally toward the Bahamas. The system slows considerably early next week, and the NHC track has Hanna still east of the Bahamas and well east of Florida Tuesday. The threat to the east coast of the U.S. will be partially determined by how Gustav behaves. Interests from Key West to Cape Hatteras will need to monitor the progress of Hanna closely.
OTHER TROPICAL NOTES: A good looking wave in the Bay of Campeche will drift slowly toward the Mexican coast tonight and tomorrow; it might become a tropical depression before moving inland. And, a good looking wave is about to come off the coast of Africa, and has the potential to become a tropical depression or tropical storm in coming days. A very busy weather map indeed.
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I had a great time speaking to the senior adults today at First Baptist Church of Trussville… thanks so much for the great hospitality and a very good lunch. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… J.B. will keep you updated on the tropical weather situation through the evening, so stay tuned…
