The prime item in the tropics is the area of low pressure that will be passing over the Yucatan today on its way into the southern Gulf of Mexico. This system could become a tropical depression later today. It will move northwestward. The most likely target for the developing system will be the Texas coast. The GFS has consistently depicted a weak system heading toward the Upper Texas coast, the GFDL strengthening it to a decent tropical storm before it reaches the lower Texas coast near Brownsville. An Air Force plane will investigate the system this afternoon. In any case, the moisture stays west of Alabama, at least in the short term.
The system in the far eastern Atlantic about 1700 miles east of North Carolina and 1000 miles west of the Azores was classified as a subtropical depression this morning. Subtropical depression eleven is very nearly tropical and is expected to become Tropical Storm Jerry later today as it moves northeastward.
The low pressure system 400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles looks like it is already a tropical depression to me. It will become better organized as it moves westward and a tropical depression may form later today.
Another disturbance just off the African coast will become a significant hurricane this week as it menaces, but does not hit the Lesser Antilles.
A second Cape Verde storm may also develop later this week.
So it will be an interesting week in the tropical department.
