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Lots of action in the tropics, not nothing threatening our Gulf coast anytime soon, at least for the next five days. Lets begin with an update on the tropical weather scene… (as always, watch the video above for the satellite images and graphics that go with these storms)
JERRY: This is merged with a large circulation in the North Atlantic and is no longer a tropical storm.
KAREN: This is a tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic, moving to the west/northwest. This one should turn north within 48 hours, and it will have a hard time growing rapidly due to increasingly hostile upper air winds across the mid-Atlantic. Most likely, this one will recurve harmlessly into the Atlantic without being a threat to the U.S. mainland.
GULF OF MEXICO: A disturbance in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico seems to be better organized, and it could be upgraded to a tropical depression later this afternoon. This one should drift slowly to the west, in the general direction of the Mexican coast. No threat to our Gulf coast.
FLORIDA: Disturbed weather continues over South Florida and the Bahamas; upper air winds don’t favor immediate tropical storm formation, but heavy rain will continue in Miami and Nassau during the next 48 hours.
CARIBBEAN: A tropical wave is in the far Northeast Caribbean; the models take this right across Puerto Rico, Hispanolia, and Cuba in coming days, so interaction with land and a rather hostile upper air wind pattern really suggest this one won’t become too organized in the short term. But, of course, we will need to watch all of them.
THE ALABAMA STORY: Another hot and muggy day is coming up tomorrow, with a high in the 88 to 91 degree range and just a few isolated, or widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during the heat of the day. Looks like we will have to wait until late Thursday afternoon or Thursday night before our next good round of showers and thunderstorms with the cold front coming in from the northwest. The models look a little drier, but I still think most places have a decent chance of getting up to 1/2 inch of rain from about 4:00 p.m. Thursday through 12:00 midnight Thursday night.
COOLER DAYS: Cooler and drier air will slip into Alabama by Friday and the weekend… humidity levels will be lower, and nights will be cooler. Looks like highs in the 82 to 86 degree range, with lows between 58 and 63 over the weekend with lots of sunshine on a daily basis.
LONG RANGE: Once again, no sign of any serious invasion of Polar into the Deep South on the 12Z GFS run for the next 16 days. The tropics should remain very active however, so we will probably have most of our attention focused on developments to the south.
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I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
