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Summer is definitely returning as we see the wonderfully anomalous eastern US trough getting replaced by a much more typical upper ridge that gets very strong into next weekend.
For now, though, as the trough axis slides east of Alabama and as the trough weakens its hold on the Southeast by pulling out to the north just slightly, I think we are in for a couple of fairly dry days. While an isolated shower could form in the afternoon heat, I think most of us will remain dry.
And we should see some sun as the morning patchy fog lifts into a stratus layer and then dissipates by mid-morning. One caution for the forecast – we will remain in a slightly northwesterly flow, so we will need to keep a wary eye to our northwest for the development of any of those large thunderstorm clusters such as is occurring this morning in Central Oklahoma. There is not a great deal of skill in forecasting these, though the GFS is doing a good job by indicating that we could see some through mid-week, it’s the position that may or may not be right.
As the trough becomes a thing of the past, we will return to more typical summer weather with the heating cranking up and the possibility of daily showers in that heat. Since our air mass will remain fairly moist, I’m confident we’ll see scattered showers from Wednesday into the weekend and perhaps beyond if the long range GFS is correct.
Severe weather threat remains well north of Alabama. And the tropics are still quiet.
The long range GFS suggests the summerl pattern will remain with us well into the middle of August.
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Filling in on the Weather Xtreme Videos for James Spann who is on vacation. But I know him pretty well, and I’ll forecast that some type of post will probably be coming to the Blog from Central Florida. In the meantime, I’m getting ready for a trip to Chicago to visit my daughter and play tourist. But I plan to keep the videos coming each morning on a one-a-day schedule with posts made by 8 am or so. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
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