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Sure looks like most our state will pick up one to two inches of rain during the next four days. Lets take a look…
TONIGHT: Clouds will thicken in advance of storm number one; and accordingly tonight won’t be nearly as cold as last night. Most spots will remain well above freezing, although extreme Northeast Alabama might flirt with 32 early tonight before the clouds arrive.
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY: Looks like the main window for rain with storm number one will come from about 1:00 p.m. tomorrow through 3:00 a.m. Wednesday. The 12Z NAM is now printing 0.51″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is exactly the same at 0.51″. You rarely see that! SPC has put up a slight risk of severe weather for Northwest Alabama tomorrow night, but with no surface based CAPE, I sure am not excited about any significant risk of severe weather around here. We should also note there will be a very tight pressure gradient across the state tomorrow; southwest winds could gust over 35 mph at times. The day will be very windy.
Wednesday will be a mostly sunny and cool day with a high close to 50 degrees.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Here comes storm number two. This one will be more vigorous than the first storm, and if this were March or April, we would be looking at a the potential for a major tornado outbreak. But, this is the dead of winter, and getting high dewpoints and high instability values up here this time of the year is a very difficult thing to do. Looks like the main round of storms will come through here Thursday night, with potential of over one inch of rain. The 12Z model runs do look a little more unstable, but the SBCAPE values are still marginal for a big severe weather event. Looks like a classic early season system with great dynamics, and only so-so thermodynamics. The prime window for rain and storms will be from about 5:00 p.m. Thursday through 5:00 a.m. Friday. The sky will clear on Friday with a high in the low 50s.
THE WEEKEND: Looks pretty good at this point; partly to mostly sunny days with mild afternoons, and clear chilly nights. We should be close to 60 both Saturday and Sunday afternoon.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Looks like another strong system blows in here Tuesday of next week with more rain and storms, followed by colder air at mid-week. And, the entire first half of February looks active with a storm system in here every three to four days, and a few shots of cold air in-between those systems. You sure can’t ignore that new buildup of very cold air over the western part of Canada… I see some spots at 35 below zero at mid-afternoon!
STORM ALERT 2008: Our annual severe weather awareness tour across Alabama begins this week! Our first stop will at Oak Grove High School on Thursday night at 7:00… we hope to see you there! From there will have shows in Anniston, Northport, Lineville, and Moody. See the details on this year’s show, and the schedule here. We hope to see you along the way!
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a few show tonight… it will be posted by 10:00 or so.
I had a great time seeing the second graders today at Trace Crossings Elementary… be looking for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
