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No shortage of issues to deal with here during the next five to seven days. But then again, this is what you expect in late March and early April in Alabama….
RIGHT NOW: The wedge is not breaking down easily. As I write this (2:15 p.m.)… our SKYCAM site atop Mount Cheaha, in wedge country, is reporting only 49 degrees. To the west, however, Hamilton is at 65, and headed for 70 with some sunshine through the clouds. Very few showers are on radar.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: A few scattered showers could begin to form tonight, but a much better chance of showers and storms is ahead for tomorrow thanks to a cold front approaching from the west. The 12Z NAM is printing 0.45″ through tomorrow evening, and that number sounds about right. Severe weather doesn’t look especially likely with the upper air support so far to the north, but tomorrow is the first day of April, after all, and you always have to watch the radar screens closely this time of the year.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: The front will stall out somewhere over Central Alabama Wednesday, and a few lingering showers will be possible. Then, on Thursday, the front lifts northward as a warm front, and as temperatures warm well up into the 70s, a few widely scattered afternoon showers or storms are not totally out of the question. And, to make matters more complicated, to the west another CAD setup shows up, with colder air trying to approach Alabama from the east. For now, we believe this CAD event will be mainly east of Alabama, but it will be something to watch. You know the deal; if the wedge eases over the state line, then Tuscaloosa sees a high of 80 Thursday, with a high of only 55 for Heflin, near the Georgia border.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: We will highlight showers and storms on Friday with another front. This one will have a little better upper support, so we will be watching for strong to severe storms, although it isn’t a classic severe weather setup. We expect about 1/2 inch of rain on Friday with the showers and storms. The GFS continues to suggest a wave forms on the front Friday night, which will keep the rain going into at least a part of the day Saturday.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: These days look dry with seasonal temperatures.
VOODOO LAND: A nice rain event shows up around Wednesday, April 9… and the 12Z GFS show a very cold look around April 15, which even hints at a late season freeze. We will keep an eye on trends, but both of these events are beyond seven days, and there is little confidence in any specific weather solution in the 7 to 15 day time frame. We are simply looking for trends.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a new show tonight, focusing on the April 3-4, 1974 “Superoutbreak” of tornadoes, featuring meteorologists who worked and lived through that historic event. We should have the show posted tonight by 10:00 or so.
I had a great time speaking to the 9th graders this morning at Gadsden City High School… they were a great audience. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
