*** No video this morning. I have limited bandwidth as I’m handling weather observing duties downtown this weekend, so will post a text only discussion. ***
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms raked the Tennessee Valley and Northeast Alabama yesterday afternoon and evening with numerous storms. I saw one report of two inch hail in Etowah County. Things died down somewhat during the evening, however, thunderstorms fired again along the convergence boundary that stretches west to east across Tennessee. Just take a look at the Southern Mississippi Valley Sector and you’ll see radar echoes stretching all the way from near Asheville, NC, across Chattanooga and Memphis all the way to Central Oklahoma.
Rainfall was heavy especially across northern Alabama. Storm total estimates from the BMX radar showed amounts of 4 to 7 inches possible. Those estimates could be a tad high since some hail contamination probably occurred.
That convergence boundary or stationary front is going to be sticking around keeping the forecast challenging for the next several days. A number of weak disturbances aloft will be riding along this boundary generating rain. The QPF forecast suggests 5 to 7 inches over the next five days from near Dallas to eastern Kentucky. And with the warm, humid air mass in place across Central Alabama, it will mean keeping showers and storms in the forecast for much of the foreseeable future. Rainfall for us is likely to be in the 1 to 2 inch range through mid-week unless the boundary sags further south. If that happens, amounts would go up.
The likelihood of the boundary coming very far south is not high because it is already parallel to the upper flow. But just like last night, one of the outflow boundaries from a cluster of storms pushed storms much further south even though the boundary did not move much. And on top of all that, SPC has us in a slight risk for severe weather for the next couple of days, the main threat today is likely to be damaging wind and large hail plus the added problem of potential flash flooding. The tornado threat may become greater Sunday with a stronger short wave moving out of East Texas.
As I noted, the overall pattern does not change much through mid-week, but the 06Z GFS is suggesting a ridge will build into the Southeast by Saturday putting an end to this boundary and the storm risk.
In voodoo country, the ridge breaks down some but the main westerly storm track is further north putting Alabama into another summer-like weather pattern for the middle of May.
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I plan to have another discussion posted by 8 am or so Sunday morning. Be sure to take the weather seriously. There was certainly a lot of lightning with those storms yesterday, so be sure to follow good lightning safety if any of these storms affect you. Thanks to all the Skywatchers out there. Your reports are critical to a good warning program. I hope you have a chance to enjoy the weekend whatever you do. Godspeed.
-Brian-
