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The ridge continued to be the main feature affecting our weather and will be for the next several days, however, there is some hope for a little relief from the heat and humidity late in the upcoming week – just in time for the Fourth of July weekend.
And Tropical Storm Alex has formed in the Southwest Caribbean Sea. Alex has the Yucatan Peninsula firmly in its sights and will be moving across that area over the weekend. Models are all arriving at similar solutions with some divergence in the tracks toward the end of the forecast period. Right now it looks like the storm will cross the Peninsula and emerge into the Southwest Gulf before heading toward the northern Mexican coast or perhaps as far north at southern Texas. The future track of Alex will depend in large part on the ridge and whether or not any type of weakness develops in that ridge. That means that the northwestern Gulf is still at some risk. Warm water and little vertical shear as Alex comes into the Gulf should mean a slow, steady intensification with Alex getting to a strong tropical storm by July 1.
In the meantime, the ridge breaks down for us with a strong closed low marching across the Great Lakes region. This closed low will being a trough to the eastern half of the country by the start to the Fourth of July weekend. A cold front is likely to dip into the Southeast US Tuesday and Wednesday. The strong trough could nudge it through by Thursday or Friday bringing us somewhat cooler and dryer air. Even a 4 to 7 degree drop in dew points will make it feel so much nicer. That plus air that will see highs only around 90 will be great!
Until the front arrives, however, look for scattered thunderstorms for much of the next 3 to 5 days with rainfall amounts heavy in stronger, slow moving storms. Temperatures will continue to reach the mid 90s each day with lows in the lower 70s.
Voodoo country shows the ridge building back into place as the summer pattern returns to something more typical for us.
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I emceed a great musical program at Helena United Methodist Church last night and will do it again tonight at 7 pm. It is our summer choir program and we have some richly talented folks singing and dancing through the evening. We even top it off with some great goodies after the program. Hope to see you there. And have a great weekend. Godspeed.
-Brian-
For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.
