Not much change in the official forecast track of Fay. Latest projects her moving onshore southof Tampa, then passing just east of Tampa-St.Petersburg before daybreak Wednesday. Then across SE Georgia Thursday not far west of Savannah. On Friday, the projected path is generally along the Augusta-Greenville-Spartanburg area to near Asheville, N.C., early Saturday.
The so called “Cone of Concern” takes in a considerably wider area, of course.
I have attached the latest 8 am EDT advisory at the end of this blog post.
MONSTER STORM???
That is what an unnamed anchor on an unnamed major TV network called Fay this morning. Quite a bit overblown if you will excuse the pun.
8 AM EDT SPOT REPORTS
Havana, Cuba…mostly cloudy, wind NNW 7
Caibarien, Cuba, thunderstorms, wind ESE 27
Key West…rain, wind east 22
Miami…heavy rain, wind SE 8
Marathon…light rain, wind east 12, gusts 18
Mollasses Reef…wind SE 16-20, sea surface temperature 86
Fowey Rocks…wind south, gusts 31, sea surface temperature 86
Tampa…mostly sunny, wind light and variable
Venice…wind NE 6, sea surface temperature 86
Sand Key…wind ENE, gusts 26
TORNADO WARNING
For parts of South Dade County (Miami area)
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS FAY IS A LITTLE STRONGER…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD…AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD…INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO
KEY WEST…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST…INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY…AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO
SEBASTIAN INLET.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.
AT 8 AM EDT…1200 UTC…ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS…AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.2
NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR JUST NORTHEAST OF VARADERO CUBA.
THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES…125 KM…EAST OF HAVANA CUBA
AND ABOUT 100 MILES…160 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE
EMERGING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS…AND BE
VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH…100 KM/HR…
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF
FAY MOVES OVER WATER. FAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES…165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES…WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY.
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION…23.2 N…81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/FRANKLIN
