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As I wrote here yesterday, when we have a cold core upper low around, expect some surprises. The first surprise was an overnight severe weather event well up into Central Alabama; we dealt with tornado warnings for much of the night (scroll down for J.B.’s blow by blow account). Seems like the most significant damage was in the Hale County community of Newbern; that happened at 10:52 last night when many trees were blown down (some on homes) and a few trailers were flipped. ABC 33/40 News reports only two minor injuries, thank goodness. There was some scattered tree and power line damage through the rest of the state.
The good news was the rain. Wow… my rain bucket here in North Shelby County shows a storm total of 1.89″. Best rain event here in a long time.
LOOKING AHEAD: The upper low will sit somewhere between Little Rock and Jackson during the next two days, still making for a very difficult forecast. With the cold air aloft associated with this, we have to keep a chance of showers in the forecast today, tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday. But, of course, it will not rain continuously, and there should be a few intervals of sunshine along the way. No doubt the heaviest rain is over, but today through Friday an additional one inch of rain is possible statewide. We do believe the weather will be dry for Friday night’s high school football games.
Another tricky issue is forecasting temperatures. Dynamic cooling associated with the upper low can make it much colder than you might think. The GFS has been trending colder; in fact the 00Z run had us in the 50s all day tomorrow. The 06Z run shows a high of only 62, with a cloudy sky and a chance of showers. I think it is pretty close to being correct.
THE WEEKEND: The weekend still looks dry with sunny mild days and clear, cool nights. A great weekend for anything outdoors.
NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday are looking dry. Then, on Halloween, the GFS drives a Polar cold front through here with the coldest air so far this season. We won’t buy totally into this idea just yet, but it is possible.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We had a great time last night visiting with Tampa weather legend Roy Leep… the show is posted now and Brian will have the show notes here a little later this morning.
WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.
STORM ALERT XTREME: We hope to see you on Saturday, November 10 at the BJCC for our annual severe storm training session. Once again this year, the Alabama International Auto Show is a sponsor of Storm Alert XTREME, and it will be held at the BJCC. This is your chance to learn more about Alabama weather, and to be trained as a storm spotter. ABC 33/40 Meteorologist Brian Peters, long time WCM (Warning Coordination Meteorologist) for the National Weather Service in Birmingham, will teach a basic and advanced course on spotting small scale features within thunderstorms that are very important to meteorologists. Read more about Storm Alert XTREME here.
I am off to Oxford this morning… I will be speaking to the senior adults at Blue Springs Baptist Church…. I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video should be up by 3:30 or so.
Also… a special thanks to Ashley Brand and Brian Peters for coming in last night and helping during the severe weather event; I stayed with it until around 2:00 when I went home to grab a nap; Jason Simpson got in early for more relief. Nice to have a good team that cares!
