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BUST: No doubt about it; the forecast for today I threw out here this morning was not good. Weather forecasting is like lining up dominoes; once one falls, a bunch of them fall. The pineapple express pushed an impulse in here this morning with precipitation that was not handled well by models, and accordingly not in the forecast. And, with cold and dry air in the lower levels, the evaporative cooling process was responsible for sleet formation. And, of course, with the rain/sleet combo temperatures are nowhere near the forecast high of 60.
BIG OVERNIGHT CHANGE: We will make a transition from this cool, stable air to a more unstable, tropical airmass during the next 18 hours. A few storms could form late tonight with potential for large hail, and the northwest corner of Alabama is in a slight risk of severe weather tonight for that season. Those storms should form on the surface warm front moving northward.
A review of the 12Z models suggest parameters actually look stronger for severe weather in Alabama tomorrow. Accordingly, SPC has upped the 30 percent severe weather region to cover much of Alabama, and we will have to be on our toes for all modes of severe weather tomorrow afternoon as the shear and instability seem to be better phased up. Seems like the best threat will be in the 2:00 to 9:00 p.m. time frame. We note the 12Z WRF ramps up the surface based CAPE values into the 1,000 j/kg range over Alabama by late tomorrow afternoon. Will be a day to watch the weather closely, and we encourage everyone to be close to a good source of weather information in the event watches and warnings are needed.
COLDER THURSDAY: A shot of colder air blows in here Thursday; the GFS is trending a little warmer with a high of 50 printed for Birmingham Thursday afternoon. It now looks like a sunny day with the backwash clouds remaining well to the north of Alabama. We head for the 20s Friday morning.
SATURDAY’S CLIPPER: The ECMWF output below has everyone buzzing…
The clipper spins up a surface low to the southeast, and the model generates snow over the northern third of Alabama. I don’t think anyone is ready to buy into this solution just yet; for now we will continue to mention a chance of some light rain Saturday with a cloudy sky. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the GFS is not as aggressive.
A fresh shot of chilly air drops in here Sunday. We really need to get tomorrow’s event out of here before we can really focus on Saturday. I like to take them one at a time, you know.
NEXT WEEK: Still looks like a good chance of showers and storms next week on Wednesday and Thursday; we could see some pretty generous rain amounts with a wide open Gulf of Mexico.
STORM ALERT 2009: Our annual severe weather awareness tour rolls into Oxford Thursday night… we will be at the Oxford Civic Center at 7:00. Be sure sure and get there early for a good seat!
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We recorded a great show last night with Doug Gillham of Mississippi State… if you like weather forecasting, you will like this week’s edition.
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I had a great time today seeing 3rd graders from Chelsea Park Elementary and Vance Elementary… they will be on the Pepsi KIDCAM at 5:00 and 6:00 respectively on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
