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OOPS… Wow… what a typo from yesterday. I said that we now allow profanity and personal attacks. That “now” should have been “NOT”! Trust me, the trolls, haters, and know-it-alls will be out in full force later in the week, so be ready. If only you saw the comments that never made it…
TODAY: Colder than forecast this morning. The colder spots are in the 25 to 30 degree range, and we just got a report of a serious accident on I-59 in Trussville with a car overturned; seems like some lingering moisture had turned to ice and was responsible for the wreck. Be aware that black ice could be an issue this morning, so take it easy out there. While we are clear right now, clouds will increase through the day as temperatures rise toward the 60 degree mark.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: A major storm system will roar out of the western Gulf of Mexico, with the surface low ending up somewhere around Huntsville at midday tomorrow. This will bring windy and wet weather to Alabama, but it will bring the heaviest rain to the southeast part of the state, south of a line from Mobile to Montgomery to Roanoke. This part of Alabama is expected 4 to 6 inches of rain, and flash flood watches are up. Up this way, the NAM is printing 1.75″ of rain for Birmingham, while the GFS is not as wet with only 0.89″. I think we can take the precipitation forecast for the I-20 down a bit to around one inch, and we do not expect any flooding around here.
In terms of the severe weather threat, it seems like the southeast part of Alabama will indeed have a chance of strong to severe storms. The greatest risk of severe weather will be for communities south and east of Montgomery, but for the entire storm system the highest severe weather probabilities will be over North Florida, and the Atlantic coast of Georgia and South Carolina. A few tornadoes are very possible in this region tomorrow.
In terms of wind, we will have south winds averaging 10 to 20 mph tomorrow, with potential for gusts to 30 mph at times, especially on the ridges. The rain will begin to taper off tomorrow afternoon as the surface low pulls away.
TURNING COLDER: As the rain moves out, much colder air moves in for Thursday and Friday. We won’t get out of the 40s on these days with a chilly north wind.
SNOW FLAKES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING? I don’t have much interest in even trying to be too specific about the next wave that shows up on the GFS down in the Gulf at the end of the week. We need to get tomorrow’s system out of here before we have really deal with it. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see the GFS is indeed showing a strong vorticity maximum rotating through the base of the long wave upper trough over the U.S., which spins up a surface low in the Gulf. The 06Z GFS hints at accumulating snow for North-Central Alabama, but that is voodoo for now and there is absolutely no need to get excited yet since the moisture will be limited. For now, we will just mention a chance of snow flurries Friday night into Saturday morning, and will deal with this in detail tomorrow night after the rain is gone. Remember, everybody will have an opinion on this, all the way from professional meteorologists to Sponge Bob, but let’s be kind in the comment section of the blog, please.
REST OF THE WEEKEND: Again on Saturday we won’t get out of the 40s, but 50s are likely Sunday afternoon as temperatures moderate.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Watch the Weather Xtreme video for more details, but the middle of the month looks active with frequent short waves and occasional shots of cold air. You get the idea we won’t have too many dull moments in the weather office around here. It does appear rain will return early next week, perhaps Monday night into Tuesday, but it is very difficult to be specific with this kind of active El Nino pattern.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. Scroll down for the show notes for this week’s new episode.
This morning I have a weather program at Cherokee Bend Elementary School in Mountain Brook… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!
