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March started with a big bang, but it looks like it will go out on a warm and dry note. 84 was the high at the Birmingham International Airport yesterday which was only 5 degrees from the record set in 1929. 84 was 15 degrees above the typical high of 69 for this time of year. And there is no sign of any significant relief from the warmth or dryness.
High pressure at the surface and aloft remained situated over the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula and will through the first of the week. A weakening short wave trough will come out of Texas Monday and continue to weaken as it moves across the top of the ridge. We do have some low level moisture as evidenced by the lower 50 degree dew points, but I don’t think we’ll see more than a few clouds and perhaps an isolated shower or two.
By Wednesday the upper ridge is reestablishing itself ahead of a strong trough that will move out of the Southwest on Friday and Saturday. This appears to be our next good chance for rain. But the system will be zipping out quickly, so any rain that occurs will not last long. I think rainfall amounts will be a half inch or less with some strong storms producing up to three-quarters of an inch. By mid-day on Saturday, the showers have moved out of Central Alabama and we should see a slight cool down. Nothing drastic on temperatures because this system has a Pacific origin so it should only mean we drop back closer to seasonal values in highs and lows.
Out in voodoo land there are no signs of anything in the way of significant weather. The GFS is showing a pattern adjustment around April 8th with the development of an east coast trough which could bring rain to the Southeast. But that’s a long way out, so we’ll just have to sit tight and watch the model solutions evolve.
I had a great time with JB and James at Mississippi State Friday and Saturday. I think it is a real treasure that we have the Southeast Severe Weather Symposium there where meteorologists and general weather nerds can come together to share information on Southeast weather. I had a delightful time talking to folks, ate entirely too much of the great food there including Pap’s Place at Ackerman and Little Dooeys, enjoyed all of the various presentations but especially liked the ones by Alan Gerard from the Jackson NWS office and Tim Coleman from UAH. Definitely have to work on that book, “I was James Spann’s Chauffeur.”
I hope you have a great Sunday. James will be back tomorrow morning with the next Weather Xtreme Video. God bless.
-Brian-
