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The big news in our weather is the exceptional warmth. As I noted yesterday, our highs – and lows – are running about 10 degrees above the typical values we expect to see in mid-November. These are certainly not extremes since the values are nearly 10 degrees from records, but they certainly make for some nice days with cool mornings and mild/warm afternoons.
Again this morning some morning clouds. Those morning clouds with the backdrop of a nearly full moon make for a great shot from the Skycam at Mobile and the Battleship Alabama. Once again this morning those low clouds have helped to generate an east to west gradient with the cooler temperatures in the eastern portion of the state. In fact it was interesting at 5 am to note that Mobile and Birmingham were reporting the same temperature – 61 degrees.
The warm weather will continue for several more days thanks in part to the strong southwesterly flow aloft. That flow is keeping the frontal system to our northwest since there is no push to get it down into Central Alabama. This situation is expected to stay this way through Thursday – a little longer than the forecast yesterday. Moisture gradually increases so starting Tuesday we might see an isolated shower or patch of light rain. With the moisture lingering, the chance for a shower remains with us until the front makes its way across Central Alabama. That is expected to occur Thursday evening or early Friday morning. The push for the front comes from the West Coast trough finally kicking out across the Great Lakes and turning our southwesterly flow to the northwest. This pushes the front through bringing a much chillier day to the Southeast on Friday. Rain should be ending by the middle of the day with sunshine returning by afternoon.
Rainfall amounts will be spotty and light until the front makes its way across the state. Look for total rainfall to be around the one inch category for most locations.
We chill down Friday and stay chilly into the weekend with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 50s once again. Morning lows will probably flirt with the freezing mark, too.
Nothing to talk about in the tropics with no areas of disturbed weather to discuss as the 2010 hurricane season winds down to an end for this year.
Now for some fun. The long range GFS – affectionately referred to as voodoo country – is giving us a wonderful scenario around December the 6th that could spell a winter storm for the Southeast US. Looks like a round of wet weather on December first followed by a deep trough bringing cold air to the eastern half of the country on the 4th. A strong short wave coming through the flow could generate a low in the Gulf around the 6th with all the trimmings for a winter weather event. But, wait, it is voodoo!!! It will be fun to watch to see how this plays out. As for me, I’m not putting a lot of faith in this projection, but wouldn’t an early December winter event be kind of fun? Stay tuned for later developments including the potential for this system to completely disappear in future runs!!
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Busy day for me with some special holiday training along with the Hanging of the Green at Helena United Methodist Church later this afternoon. James Spann should be up first thing tomorrow morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Enjoy our warm weather and dust off the cold weather gear. Godspeed.
-Brian-
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