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The forecast yesterday was complex with that large MCS in northern Mississippi and eastern Arkansas, and it appears that it really starved Alabama for rain. But it is another day and the pattern is somewhat drier today and is likely to stay that way for the next several days.
The trough sharpened a bit more than expected yesterday, and now the trough is headed away from us. That will place us under a drier northwesterly flow for the next couple of days, so I don’t think we’ll be seeing any showers until about Sunday as the upper ridge grows stronger and becomes the dominating feature in our weather, replacing the trough that has helped to keep us cooler and wetter.
By Sunday, though, moisture increases enough to bring those daily showers back into the forecast. The showers, however, will be isolated so very few of us will get any rain. We stay that way Monday and Tuesday, but by Wednesday we may see an increase in showers moving into the scattered category. Temperatures are likely to reach the lower and mid 90s for highs.
Let’s hope the GFS is correct as it brings a strong short wave across the northern tier of the US suppressing the ridge here. That will help to keep the heat in check and perhaps provide an increase to shower development.
Tropics remain quiet while a large chunk of the northwestern US is under a slight risk of severe weather in the SPC outlook.
Projections out into voodoo from the GFS suggest no excessive heat issues even though the upper ridge remains as the primary feature for us.
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I’m in Chicago, and the weather is glorious this morning. 60 for a low at O’Hare airport which is a bit west of where my daughter lives. When I arrived yesterday afternoon, the lower humidity was the first thing I noticed. The high of only 79 felt good, too. I hope you have a great day. Stay cool and Godspeed.
-Brian-
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