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Clouds cover much of Alabama this morning, and accordingly temperatures are well above freezing. We even have some light rain on radar; and we will mention the chance of a few sprinkles today as there is some upward motion in the atmosphere. However, the low level air remains dry (still Polar in nature), so really significant rain is not expected. The weather will remain unseasonably cool with a high in the upper 50s, but warmer days are ahead.
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: We will mention the chance of a shower tomorrow afternoon, but showers will be a little more likely tomorrow night as moisture continues to improve and another weak impulse moves through the upper flow. The models are becoming a little more aggressive on rain during this time frame, so we will probably hit the rain a little harder in our afternoon forecast update if the trend continues on the 12Z runs. Then, on Wednesday, we will mention the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms as the moist air remains in place. The warming trend will continue; we should be up in the low 70s by Wednesday afternoon, very close to normal values for early April in Alabama.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Warm weather returns… the temperature should reach the low 80s on both of these days with morning clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine. I guess you can’t rule out a brief afternoon shower somewhere around here, but the main action will be off to the west, where a major upper trough will be coming out of the Rockies. A significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes seems likely Friday afternoon and Friday night across parts of eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
WEEKEND PEEK: The big upper trough will swing through Alabama as the weekend begins, and SPC has most all of Alabama in a severe weather risk for Saturday. While the primary surface low will be well to the north (north of Chicago), the forecast instability and wind fields certainly would suggest a very active weather day around here on Saturday. Sunday will be dry and a little cooler as the storms sweep to the east quickly.
LONG RANGE: The GFS is hinting at opportunities for rain around April 18 and April 20; neither of those systems look especially strong for now, but that is all out there in voodoo land. And, the second cold snap that was showing up last week around April 18-19 is long gone, and I am sure the commercial growers are glad to hear that.
LOOKING BACK at the weekend temperature data, the cloud cover late Saturday night and early Sunday morning helped to keep temperatures up in the upper 20s and low 30s over the central part of Alabama, but to the north temperatures were as cold as 22 up in Hamilton. Our weather watcher up in Etowah County, Vic Bell in Black Creek (northeast of Gadsden), wrote this about Sunday morning’s conditions:
“The news is not so happy from Black Creek, even though clouds did hold the temp up a few degrees. I had a low of 23.9° at 5:34 am & 6:40 am with a moderate frost. Temps have been below freezing since about 7:45 pm last night (this was written Sunday morning around 6:00). It looks like the frost has killed about everything the cold didn’t get, including the ten acres of crimson clover across the road, which was just about to burst into bloom. The top on the emerging Bermuda grass was killed back also, as were many of the deciduous leaves. The most beautiful March in memory will be followed by the uglies April.”
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Today I will be speaking at Mt. Laurel Elementary in Shelby County; I will be back in the office by early afternoon and will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30!
