**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today; we are working on the holiday schedule; just one video per day through January 4**
Scroll down for the morning edition of the Weather Xtreme video… and for J.B.’s long list of Alabama lows.
RIGHT NOW: Birmingham is reporting 33 degrees at 2:00, well below forecast values. The models simply don’t understand the depth of this cold air and the vast snow pack over North America. We will need to remember this as we head into January and the colder days.
I would not be shocked if some of the colder spots actually drop into the upper teens by 10:00 or so tonight; the southerly flow really won’t kick in until after midnight, when temperatures should begin to slowly rise. Still, we should be in the low to mid 20s by daybreak tomorrow. The guidance remains too warm for tonight.
CHRISTMAS TIME IS HERE: No real change in our thinking for the rest of the week; we warm up considerably in coming days; we will be in the 50s tomorrow, with readings well in the 60s by Wednesday and Christmas Day. A moist airmass will move into the state, and with a stalled surface front nearby and a disturbed southwest flow aloft, we will mention a good chance of showers on a daily basis Wednesday through Friday. A few thunderstorms could be involved along the way.
WEEKEND PEEK: Still looks like some potential for a significant severe weather event for areas west of Alabama Friday night into Saturday; states like Louisiana, Arkansas, and the western parts of Mississippi and Tennessee. The strong shortwave will lift well to the north of Alabama by Saturday night, and it seems like the risk of severe weather will diminish here because of the weakening dynamic forcing. Still, with a moist and unstable airmass in place, we will need to watch it closely in coming days. The GFS suggests that front might stall out, keeping a chance of rain in the forecast through Sunday, and possibly Monday of next week. We will just have a hard time getting fronts trough here with the persistent, warm ridge over Florida.
VOODOO LAND: Still expecting the NAO flip to negative as January arrives and a colder pattern for Alabama and the Deep South. I am not really that interested in specific GFS model runs right now… we will look more closely at those next week as it all gets closer. With such a bitterly cold airmass over North America and over the pole into Siberia, it sure seems to set the stage for very cold weather for much of the nation in January, and possibly beyond. Keep the firewood dry.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. We will record a holiday episode tonight; it should be posted by 10:30 or so.
TWITTER: Don’t forget, you can follow our news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. And, my personal Twitter feed is here if you want to keep up with my adventures in life. Twitter is a short messaging service you can receive via the web, cell phone, or IM.
I will have the next Weather Xtreme video by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
