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An easy forecast today; sunny with a warm afternoon and a high in the mid 80s. Pretty much the same story tomorrow; lots of sun with a high in the mid to upper 80s, getting a little toasty for October. And, with dewpoints slowly on the rise, nights will be trending warmer for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: You know the old saying, “you don’t forecast rain in the middle of a drought”. I think that is the best way to look at the forecast for this four day period. But, there is great model madness and a serious degree of uncertainty with a potential tropical system in play to the south…
The NAM has backed off on the development of a tropical storm in the Gulf in coming days; now both the GFS and the NAM move a broad non-tropical low westward across the Gulf, in the general direction of the Texas coast. One way or another, this feature will bring increasing moisture to Alabama by Thursday and Friday. I think we need to mention a chance of isolated afternoon showers on these days. No serious rain event, just the chance of a shower in a few spots. Highs in the 85 to 88 degree range; lows in the 60s.
I really don’t think the weather changes much into the weekend. And, we should mention this weekend forecast is pretty important since it is race weekend at Talladega, and homecoming on the campus of the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa. For now, we will forecast warm and humid weather on Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. There will be enough moisture for isolated afternoon showers both days, but nothing widespread.
We should note that the GFS solution of pushing a strong cold front through here on Sunday is long gone this morning; the core of the jet stream (the mid-latitude westerlies) on the 00Z GFS run remains well to the north of here. I was pulling for Tim Coleman’s idea he posted yesterday afternoon with a nice push of cool air early next week, but for now that idea is off the table. Lets hope it gets back on the table soon!
LONG RANGE: As we get deeper into October that will certainly bring an increased opportunity for a nice shot of chilly air, but with so much model inconsistency in the short term, we sure can’t trust any long term solution for now. I do think the tropics will remain very active for the next two weeks; there is potential for all kind of mischief in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for the rest of the month.
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I will be over at South Shades Crest Elementary in Hoover late this morning… then back into the office by early afternoon, and the next Weather Xtreme video will be up by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
