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Low temperatures this morning are about 12 to 20 degrees warmer than yesterday, so the warmup is well under way. Look for the afternoon highs to reach well into the 50s even with a mostly cloudy sky as an active weather pattern gets going for us.
In the upper atmosphere, a deep trough and closed low were located over the four corners area of the Southwest US while a short wave was ejecting out of that closed low moving across Texas. That short wave should move across the Southeast US tomorrow bringing chances for showers. But Friday will likely be drier as the closed low begins to move out of the Southwest US toward the western Great Lakes. This will help to pump up the ridge over us, so we should be warm (relatively) and mostly dry with a cloudy sky.
The main event appears set for late Friday night and into New Years Day. The surface low over the western Great Lakes drags a cold front into the area bringing a wet day to Central Alabama and good portion of the Southeast US. There are some model differences with the GFS not taking that surface front a lot further south while the European was moving it further into the Gulf. But it does appear likely that the second day of the new year will be dry for Central Alabama. With a southwesterly flow aloft, we will cool down some but nothing dramatic with temperatures a little below where we usually are around the first of January.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked an area stretching from Jackson, MS, to Little Rock, AR, to near St. Louis, MO, for a slight risk of severe storms on the 31st. There is a potential for the possibility of supercell storms as that big closed low kicks out to the northeast. That’s still a ways out so we’ll be following the developments of this. At least at the moment, it surely appears likely that there will be a good deal of deep layer moisture to deal with.
Mild and relatively cloudy conditions will continue into the first few days of 2011 with a nearly zonal flow with a slight southwesterly fetch. By a week from today there is another deep trough coming out of the Southwest US that could bring another rain event to Central Alabama by a week from today.
The projections for the longer range – voodoo country – have completely flipped from yesterday. My confidence in this is quite low. the latest GFS run suggests a big ridge and very mild conditions for much of the second week of the forecast period. The NAO forecast, however, is still very negative suggesting another round of cold weather. So the two are not in phase. Ah, the joys of long range forecasts!
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Thanks for tuning into the Weather Xtreme Video. Just a reminder that we are on a one-a-day schedule while James Spann is on vacation. I plan to have the next video posted by 7:30 or so tomorrow morning. Make it a great day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
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